Background
With the writ of election having dropped on January 29, 2025, the halfway point of the 2025 Ontario election is upon us. As we look to election day on February 27th, all three main parties are now running a full slate of candidates and hitting the doors. Premier Doug Ford, the leader of the Progressive Conservatives is seeking a renewed four-year mandate to tackle tariff threats from President of the United States, Donald Trump. These tariffs appeared to be imminent during the beginning of the campaign period, originally slated to begin on February 1st, but President Trump delayed the deadline by 30 days.
Ontario Liberal (OLP) leader Bonnie Crombie and Ontario New Democrat leader (ONDP) Marit Stiles have tried to use this window as an opportunity to campaign on more than just the tariff issue and change the dynamics of the campaign as they seek to topple Premier Ford’s chance at winning another mandate.
This blog provides an update on the campaign developments since the beginning of the election and what’s to come in the second half of the race.
The Issues
Overall, recent polling demonstrates that the cost of living and healthcare continue to be a focal point of this election alongside persistent concerns about the U.S. tariffs.
When examining the main priorities of the parties, the incumbent PCs are focused on protecting Ontario from the threat of tariffs, cost of living relief, and key investments in transit.
As Premier Ford defends his election call believing the spending required to defend tariffs requires a renewed mandate, Stiles and Crombie are trying to frame the election as a power grab on behalf of the Premier. In addition, Crombie has also placed significant focus on investing in healthcare and going after the incumbent government’s record on ER wait times and access to primary care, including in an ad aired during the Superbowl. Alternatively, Stiles has focused on affordability with policies like offering a grocery rebate.
The Policies
PC Party: The Ontario PC’s are basing their campaign on a “Protect Ontario” platform, with the tariff threat taking centre stage. Premier Ford travelled to Washington D.C. on February 11th, along with the rest of Canada’s Premiers, to try and persuade the United States Government to end their tariff threat. On February 3rd, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy and Treasury Board President Caroline Mulroney announced a multibillion-dollar tariff stimulus package to offset tariff impacts if the PCs win another mandate. In addition to the PC’s trade platform, Transport Minister Sarkaria and Premier Ford have made a slate of transport announcements throughout the campaign including GO 2.0, which announced 2 new GO train lines; the removal of tolls on the 407 East; and a tunnel under the 401 to offset gridlock.
Ontario Liberal Party: Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie is running on the slogan “More for You”. Since the beginning of the election period, Crombie has announced campaign promises regarding transit safety, a tariff relief plan, and the doubling of disability support payments. Crombie’s transit safety plan includes funding for 300 additional special constables to patrol the TTC and other major transportation networks, a crisis response fund, and funding for platform doors on all TTC stations. Crombie’s tariff relief plan includes bonuses for Canadian doctors and health practitioners who choose to return from practicing in the United States, an income tax cut for the middle class and the elimination of HST on home heating and hydro, halving the small business tax rate, and passing a stimulus spending package.
Ontario New Democrat Party: Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles has made several new campaign promises since the commencement of the election period. Stiles has announced her intention to create a consumer protection platform which includes a monthly grocery rebate payment that will rebate the difference between the cost increases incurred by families on essentials like milk, bread, and vegetables from 2018. In addition, Stiles is promising price increase bulletins requiring retailers to publicly post price increases beyond 2%. Stiles has also announced her intention to create a universal school food program, hire new school staff, and pass $830 million in spending to rebuild distressed school infrastructure.
The Polls
According to pollster Nik Nanos’ most up-to-date poll published February 12th, the PC Party is polling at 44.5%, while the Liberals are polling at 32%, and the NDP at 16.5%, which points to a likely PC majority. In fourth place is Mike Schreiner’s Green Party, polling at 6.5%. Since the beginning of the campaign, the PC numbers have remained relatively stable, with some uptick in OLP support mirrored by a decline in ONDP support.
What’s Next
With two weeks left, there are still plenty of events expected to shape the outcome. Except for the Green Party, the other parties have not yet released a full platform – which will be a key part of providing their full vision to voters. Additionally, there will be two debates held – one on northern issues on February 14th and the all-leaders debate on February 17th. All of these scheduled events will also face ongoing uncertainty of any further decisions on tariffs, with the March 1st date coinciding closely with the February 27th election.
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